Politically knowledgeable ideologues believe they are less effective in political conversations

Abstract How accurately can people estimate how influential they are when they talk about politics? Using data from two field experiments in which partisans discussed political issues with anonymous partners via messaging apps, I find that peoples’ perceptions of their influence are not related to their actual influence. Instead, perceptions of influence are shaped by political knowledge and ideology. In both cross-party and all-Democrat conversations, people who know more about politics believe they are less influential. In cross-party but not all-Democrat conversations, those who are more ideologically extreme believe they are less influential. Notably, political knowledge has no effect on the amount of influence respondents actually have. These findings suggest a need to better understand potential differential effects of conversation-based depolarization interventions by level of participant political knowledge.