Multi-Scenario Assessment of Ecological Network Resilience and Community Clustering in the Yellow River Delta

The rapid economic and urban development in the Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone (YRDEEZ) has intensified land use changes and aggravated ecological patch fragmentation. Constructing ecological networks (ENs) can reconnect fragmented patches and enhance ecosystem services. This study simulated land use patterns for 2040 under three scenarios: Natural Development (NDS), Ecological Protection (EPS), and Urban Development (UDS). Results indicated a consistent decline in agricultural land and an expansion of urban land across all scenarios, with the most pronounced urban growth under UDS (6.79%) and the largest ecological land area under EPS (5178.96 km2). Since 2000, the number of EN sources and corridors had decreased, with sources mainly concentrated along coastal areas. The source and corridor under UDS exhibited the highest area ratio (20.08%), while NDS showed the lowest (18.72%), with UDS demonstrating the strongest resilience. Through community detection, the UDS EN was divided into five ecological clusters, encompassing 127 intra-cluster corridors (2285.95 km) and 34 inter-cluster corridors (1171.32 km), among which the cluster near the Yellow River estuary was determined to be the most critical (Level 1). These findings will provide valuable insights for managing landscape fragmentation and biological habitat protection in YRDEEZ. Meanwhile, the multi-scenario simulations of ENs could play an important role in constructing ecological security patterns and protecting ecosystems.