Shrinking China: Policy, Social Changes, and Fertility Decline

China has experienced a population decline since 2022, and its total fertility rate has dropped to about 1.0 in 2025. This is despite the lifting of the one-child policy in 2015 and the pivot to the two-child policy and three-child policy in, respectively, 2016 and 2021. Based on a review of recent research, this paper provides an interpretation that the continued fertility decline reflects a perfect storm of socioeconomic and demographic processes, long-term effects of the one-child policy, and unprecedented social changes in Chinese society. Socioeconomic and demographic changes since the 1950s prepared the ground for the “late, sparse, few” policy, resulting in a sharp fertility decline in the 1970s. While the one-child policy that followed did not result in a fertility decline in the 1980s, its effects appear to be long-lasting, including concentrated investment by the “inverted family” in the only child that drives up society-wide childrearing costs. Significant improvement in women’s educational attainment, individualistic orientation that prioritizes personal goals, increased diversity in family structure, such as one-person households, and changing views about getting married and having children have all contributed to continued downward pressure on fertility. These findings hint at the relevance of the concept of the second demographic transition for China and suggest that policy is only effective if it is aligned with what people want.