Mapping the distribution and predicting the presence of the Vulnerable long-tailed goral <i>Naemorhedus caudatus</i> in South Korea

Abstract The long-tailed goral Naemorhedus caudatus is a small ungulate that inhabits mountainous regions in eastern Russia, China and Korea. It is highly sensitive to human disturbance and is categorized as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. We present the first distribution map of the long-tailed goral in South Korea and identify habitats critical for enhancing conservation and recovery efforts. We conducted a two-step modelling process, using MaxEnt to identify sites for field surveys, and subsequently draft a distribution map, and then used linear mixed-effects modelling to identify predictors of goral presence. Based on 641 records of the goral, we used MaxEnt to identify 364 of 1,027 10×10 km grid cells as potentially suitable for the species. In field surveys during 2019–2022, we confirmed goral presence at 892 of 1,232 survey sites in 123 of the 364 grid cells, primarily in the north-eastern and central-eastern mountains. There were no detections south of latitude 36°16′N. Using linear mixed-effects models, we examined the contribution of 14 environmental and anthropogenic variables to the prediction of goral presence. Elevation, land-cover type, human footprint, distances to nearest express highway, paved road and national park, and land price were significant predictors of goral presence. In combination, the distribution map and predictive model of goral presence can be used to monitor and protect remaining goral populations.