Stand Properties Relate to the Accuracy of Remote Sensing of Ips typographus L. Damage in Heterogeneous Managed Hemiboreal Forest Landscapes: A Case Study

Under the intensifying water shortages in the vegetation season, early identification of Ips typographus L. damage is crucial for preventing wide outbreaks, which undermine the economic potential of commercial stands of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.) across Europe. For this purpose, remote sensing based on satellite images is considered one of the most efficient methods, particularly in homogenous and wide forested landscapes. However, under highly heterogeneous seminatural managed forest landscapes in lowland Central and Northern Europe, as illustrated by the eastern Baltic region and Latvia in particular, the efficiency of such an approach can lack the desired accuracy. Hence, the identification of smaller damage patches by I. typographus, which can act as a source of wider outbreaks, can be overlooked, and situational awareness can be further aggravated by infrastructure artefacts. In this study, the accuracy of satellite imaging for the identification of I. typographus damage was evaluated, focusing on the occurrence of false positives and particularly false negatives obtained from the comparison with UAV imaging. Across the studied landscapes, correct or partially correct identification of damage patches larger than 30 m2 occurred in 73% of cases. Still, the satellite image analysis of the highly heterogeneous landscape resulted in quite a common occurrence of false negatives (up to one-third of cases), which were related to stand and patch properties. The high rate of false negatives, however, is crucial for the prevention of outbreaks, as the sources of outbreaks can be underestimated, burdening prompt and hence effective implication of countermeasures. Accordingly, elaborating an analysis of satellite images by incorporating stand inventory data could improve the efficiency of early detection systems, especially when coupled with UAV reconnaissance of heterogeneous landscapes, as in the eastern Baltic region.