Factors Affecting Defaults on Jeonse Deposit Guarantees: Focusing on the Seoul Metropolitan Area*

The COVID-19 pandemic–induced policy shifts intensified housing price volatility and influenced the rental market, raising concerns about large-scale Jeonse deposit guarantee defaults. Using 453,122 guarantee contracts in the Seoul metropolitan area from 2019 to 2024 and a binary logistic regression model, this study identifies the determinants of such defaults. Results show that landlord characteristics—corporate ownership, multi-homeownership, housing type, price assessment methods, and high debt-to-income ratios—heighten default risks, while guaranteed monthly rent contracts, Jeonse loans, and landlord participation in guarantee schemes mitigate them. By highlighting previously underexplored factors, the study calls for stricter oversight of multi-property landlords, tighter debt regulation, and improved information transparency to enhance the stability of the Jeonse deposit system.