Uncovering the energy infrastructure in Europe: Data-driven digital twin for policy analysis and interpretation via multi-way analysis

With the adoption of the European Green Deal, the target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, requires a higher renewable energy fraction and better energy efficiency. This requires a comprehensive re-evaluation of the power infrastructure within the European Union (EU). To achieve this, a EU-focused digital twin has been constructed, focusing on the European region and neighboring countries. The twin uses annual and 30-minute resolution data from 113 main stations representing 40 countries, with a focus on EU member states. Multi-way analysis (PARAFAC2) is used to align interpretation for both data and high-resolution data, prioritizing regional energy infrastructure features. An automated graph-theory (P-graph) approach is used to construct a large-scale multi-time-sliced energy-balanced model as a digital twin model. This novel integration of macro-level trend analysis (via PARAFAC2), time-resolved optimization, and equity-based constraints enables a data-driven exploration of diverse policy scenarios. This study shows that effective EU energy policy should balance renewable diversification, equity in energy access, and regional cooperation, as policy shifts significantly affect energy flows and trade dynamics. While resilient infrastructure may require high investment, trade-off analysis reveals cost-effective, balanced pathways that optimize both sustainability and security objectives. The work demonstrates the potential for data-driven policy making for regional or international infrastructure, focusing on optimization of energy transfer activities, promotion of renewable sources, and systematic planning. • Allows 30-minute resolution data-driven infrastructure optimization and policy analysis. • Reformulation of PARAFAC2 allows direct decomposition of regional dynamic power data. • Optimal policy analysis via dynamic data and multi-time-sliced P-graph approach • Unveils the impact of policies on energy transfer and instability at the country-level. • The combined analysis reveals trade-off potentials in European power infrastructure.