SCNGO-CNN-LSTM-Based Voltage Sag Prediction Method for Power Systems

To achieve accurate voltage sag prediction and early warning, thereby improving power quality, a hybrid voltage sag prediction framework is proposed by integrating Kernel Entropy Component Analysis (KECA) with an improved Northern Goshawk Optimization (NGO) algorithm for hyperparameter tuning of a CNN-LSTM model. First, to address the limitations of the original NGO, such as proneness to falling into local optima and high randomness of the initial population distribution, a refraction-opposition-based learning mechanism is introduced to enhance population diversity and expand the search space. Furthermore, a sine–cosine strategy (SCA) with nonlinear weight coefficients is integrated into the exploration phase to dynamically adjust the search step size, optimizing the balance between global exploration and local exploitation, thereby boosting convergence speed and accuracy. The improved algorithm (SCNGO) is then utilized to optimize the hyperparameters of the CNN-LSTM model. Second, KECA is applied to voltage-sag-related data to extract key features and eliminate redundant information, and the resulting dimensionally reduced data are fed as input to the SCNGO-CNN-LSTM model to further improve prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the SCNGO-CNN-LSTM model outperforms other comparative models significantly across multiple evaluation metrics. Compared with NGO-CNN-LSTM, GWO-CNN-LSTM, and the original CNN-LSTM, the proposed method achieves a mean squared error (MSE) reduction of 53.45%, 44.68%, and 66.76%, respectively. The corresponding root mean squared error (RMSE) is decreased by 25.33%, 18.61%, and 36.92%, while the mean absolute error (MAE) is reduced by 81.23%, 77.04%, and 86.06%, respectively. These results confirm that the proposed framework exhibits superior feature representation capability and significantly improves voltage sag prediction accuracy.