Ground-Motion Simulations for the 2024 Mw 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey, Earthquake

Abstract Ground-motion simulations of notable earthquakes in the central and eastern United States are limited and typically assume 1D Earth structure. In this study, we use a 3D seismic velocity model to better constrain the depth and focal mechanism of the 5 April 2024, moment magnitude 4.8 Tewksbury earthquake and investigate the spatial variability of earthquake ground motions and the effects of nearby sedimentary basins. We perform earthquake ground-motion simulations up to 0.5 Hz using the 3D spectral-element wave-propagation solver SPECFEM3D over a region 280 km wide by 260 km long by 77 km deep. Topography and subsurface geophysical structure are assigned using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Crustal Model with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 200 m/s. We use earthquake time series from 13 broadband seismic stations in the region that have a uniform azimuthal distribution and epicentral distances ranging from 76 to 131 km to compare with synthetics and explore the effects of 1D versus 3D seismic structure on focal mechanism and depth solutions. Ground-motion intensity metrics are also presented relative to the Next Generation Attenuation-East Project (NGA-East) ground-motion models (GMMs) currently used in seismic hazard assessments for the region. We find that the 3D model, which reveals a wide spatial variability of period-dependent ground motions, yields better predictions of earthquake ground motions relative to the 1D model and the NGA-East ergodic GMM, with a 76% reduction of residual variance in observed ground motions averaged over 3, 5, 7, and 10 s periods. Use of the 3D model to solve for a focal mechanism yields a shallower focal depth at 4 km and a shallower east-dipping focal plane relative to the USGS regional moment tensor and Global Centroid Moment Tensor. Our study demonstrates that use of 3D seismic velocity models can improve estimates of earthquake focal mechanisms, ground motions, and seismic hazard.