Potential of green reindustrialisation for generating decent work and socioeconomic transformation in the North and Northeast of Brazil

Green reindustrialisation—grounded in decarbonisation, circularity, bioeconomy, and resource efficiency—presents a strategic opportunity to advance climate objectives while addressing persistent regional inequalities. This study examines the potential of green and circular reindustrialisation to generate decent work and promote socioeconomic transformation in Brazil’s North and Northeast, the country’s most socioeconomically vulnerable macroregions. Using municipality-level administrative data, harmonised territorial indicators, and multivariate statistical modelling with robust standard errors, the analysis demonstrates that higher local densities of green jobs are consistently associated with stronger socioeconomic outcomes. A 10% increase in green jobs per 100,000 inhabitants correlates with a 1.76% increase in municipal GDP per capita, a 2.57% improvement in the Social Progress Index, and measurable reductions in climate vulnerability. The research reveals a critical paradox: while 73.7% of workers in green occupations in Brazil operate informally, the North and Northeast remain largely absent from national green employment statistics—not due to a lack of sustainable practices, but because environmentally relevant work in these regions is predominantly informal. With informality rates exceeding 50% in states such as Maranhão, Pará, and Bahia, current metrics systematically undercount the ecological contributions of these territories. Simulation exercises indicate that targeted expansion of green employment in the North and Northeast would generate measurable national economic gains: raising green-job density by 10% in these regions is associated with approximately 0.35% growth in Brazil’s total GDP, demonstrating that regional green-labour policies yield aggregate benefits extending well beyond directly affected municipalities. The findings underscore three policy imperatives: (1) upgrading job quality through formalisation pathways, cooperative strengthening, and labour protections; (2) territorialising industrial policy through infrastructure investment in renewable energy corridors, waste-management systems, and regional innovation hubs; and (3) recognising sustainable informal work by integrating waste pickers, smallholder farmers, and traditional communities into green-job strategies. Brazil’s challenge is not the absence of green work, but the transformation of existing ecological and circular activities into decent work. With coherent and inclusive policies, the North and Northeast can transition from recipients of the green transition to leaders in shaping a socially just and territorially balanced development pathway—offering lessons for emerging economies worldwide navigating the dual imperatives of decarbonisation and inclusive growth.