U-H-Mamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Hierarchical State-Space Model for Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Hybrid Laboratory and Real-World Datasets

Accurate prognosis of the remaining useful life (RUL) for lithium-ion batteries is critical for mitigating range anxiety and ensuring the operational safety of electric vehicles. However, existing data-driven methods often struggle to maintain robustness when transferring from controlled laboratory conditions to complex, sensor-limited, real-world environments. To bridge this gap, this study presents U-H-Mamba, a novel uncertainty-aware hierarchical framework trained on a massive hybrid repository comprising over 146,000 charge–discharge cycles from both laboratory benchmarks and operational electric vehicle datasets. The proposed architecture employs a two-level design to decouple degradation dynamics, where a Multi-scale Temporal Convolutional Network functions as the base encoder to extract fine-grained electrochemical fingerprints, including derived virtual impedance proxies, from high-frequency intra-cycle measurements. Subsequently, an enhanced Pressure-Aware Multi-Head Mamba decoder models the long-range inter-cycle degradation trajectories with linear computational complexity. To guarantee reliability in safety-critical applications, a hybrid uncertainty quantification mechanism integrating Monte Carlo Dropout with Inductive Conformal Prediction is implemented to generate calibrated confidence intervals. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate the framework’s superior performance, achieving a RMSE of 3.2 cycles on the NASA dataset and 5.4 cycles on the highly variable NDANEV dataset, thereby outperforming state-of-the-art baselines by 20–40%. Furthermore, SHAP-based interpretability analysis confirms that the model correctly identifies physics-informed pressure dynamics as critical degradation drivers, validating its zero-shot generalization capabilities. With high accuracy and linear scalability, the U-H-Mamba model offers a viable and physically interpretable solution for cloud-based prognostics in large-scale electric vehicle fleets.