A novel method for risk identification and quantitative assessment in shale gas development phase based on STPA-FTA-DEMATEL

With the growing strategic importance of shale gas in China's energy portfolio, effective risk assessment during the production phase has become crucial. Conventional risk analysis approaches often struggle to capture the in herent complexity and diversity of shale gas well production systems. To address this limitation, this study proposes a hybrid framework combining integrates the System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methods to contruct a comprehensive risk assessment framework for shale gas well production. Through STPA and FTA, the study investigates four dimensions—human factors, equipment, materials, and environment—to accurately identify potential risks such as frontline operator errors, equipment failures, material supply and quality issues, and complex geological and climatic conditions. DEMATEL is subsequently employed to quantify the weights of risk factors, highlighting high-weight risks such as gas production equipment failures, gathering and transportation pipeline system failures, geological risks increasing extraction difficulty, and climatic and environmental risks that complicate extraction processes. These risks are interdependent and manifest across multiple production stages, significantly impacting the safety, stability, and efficiency of shale gas production. This research provides a more precise and comprehensive basis for shale gas production risk assessment that contributing to the safe and efficient production of shale gas. • Conducted the first analysis of risks during the production phase of shale gas wells. • Proposed the STPA-FTA-DEMATEL method for risk identification and quantitative assessment.