Competitiveness Analysis and Freight Volume Forecast of High-Speed Rail Express: A Case Study of China

To assess the market competitiveness of high-speed rail (HSR) express and forecast its freight volume, this paper develops an integrated framework combining strategic analysis, market forecasting, and competition assessment. A hybrid SWOT-AHP model identifies and quantifies key strategic factors, clarifying HSR express positioning. Considering macroeconomic and consumption factors, a GM(1,N) model forecasts intercity express volume. Based on a generalized cost function covering timeliness, economy, safety, and stability, an improved Logit model calculates HSR’s mode share against road and air express, deriving future HSR freight volume. Using China as a case study, results show: (1) A proactive strategy leveraging intrinsic strengths is recommended, supported by rapid intercity express growth; (2) HSR can capture over 20% mode share initially, showing strong competitiveness in medium-long distance transport; (3) Transport cost is the most sensitive factor, a 20% reduction raises mode share by 10%, while rising timeliness demands enhance long distance advantages. This study offers a quantitative basis for HSR express strategic planning.