Variability, Prediction, and Simulation of Rainfall Erosivity Risk in the State of Sinaloa, Northwest Mexico

Observed rainfall erosivity risk (ORE) index is defined as the erosivity risk in the event of extreme rainfall events. ORE measures the kinetic energy of raindrops generated during a period of maximum precipitation intensity with the formula ORE=ED·TEI/10, where ED = erosivity density, TEI = total erosivity index, and ORE is measured in MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1. The goal of this study is to model ORE, estimate its spatiotemporal variability, and predict (PRE) and simulate ORE for the state of Sinaloa (1969–2018). Five indices of rainfall erosivity were calculated: the modified Fournier index, precipitation concentration index, ED, TEI, and rainfall erosivity factor. The nonparametric trend in ORE was calculated. Using multiple nonlinear regressions (MNR), PRE (dependent variable) was calculated as a function of cumulative annual, annual average, seasonal average, and seasonal cumulative rainfall (independent variables). To simulate PRE, cumulative distribution functions, adjusted return periods (ARPs), and the 99th percentile were used. ORE ranged from 51.39 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 in 1970 (Culiacán) to 92679.40 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 in 1998 (Sta. C. de Alaya). The only year that had very high ORE at all nine stations was 1998. The only significant trend was ORE = 34.64 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 (Culiacán). The nine PRE models were significantly predictive (Spearman correlation > 0.280). Guatenipa, Rosario, and Siqueros registered very high PRE, since one to eight extreme erosivity events per century are predicted on average. A new methodology is proposed for calculating ORE and PRE, which can be used to develop alternatives for managing and protecting agricultural land in the state considered “the breadbasket of Mexico”.