Three Waters Synthesis and Evolution with Sustainable Development Goals in the Yellow River Basin from 2015–2022

The “Three Waters” system comprising water environment, resources and ecology, forms a critical foundation for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, conventional management tools often treat these components in isolation, overlooking their internal and interactive couplings. This study uncovers the interactions within and between the “Three Waters” and sustainable development goals, identifying key policy levers to support water sustainability in the Yellow River Basin. We construct a complex network “Sustainable Water³ Space”, integrating SDG indicators from SDG 1 (No Poverty) to SDG 15 (Life on Land), to systematically capture synergies and critical nodes. We further introduce an innovative evaluation framework combining eigenvector centrality and complexity to identify regions and indicators with cascading influence or systemic importance. The Space demonstrates a stable four-cluster structure (Socio-economic Development, Water Resource, Water Environment, Water Ecology) from 2015 to 2022, and the emerging “bridges” and complex indicators, such as water usage per unit of GDP, surface water quality, and pesticide application, reflect a shift from isolated growth to co-evolution of economy and environment. Based on these findings, we propose differentiated regional strategies. For instance, Licheng District can improve water quality and pollutant control by reducing residential wastewater discharge, whereas Wudi County should prioritize curbing industrial pollution (e.g., phosphorus) and enhance water-use efficiency relative to GDP. This study depicts the systemic evolution of watershed performance at county-level through a network methodology, which can serve as a decision-making tool to support differentiated and targeted sustainable development strategies in the Yellow River Basin. • Develop “Sustainable Water³ Space,” a complex and stable network integrating 53 SDG indicators and their interactions for 2015 and 2022. • Compare the synergy pathways and identify the evolving key “bridge” indicators between 2015 and 2022. • Demonstrate a shift from isolated growth to economy–environment co-evolution in the Yellow River Basin from 2015 to 2022. • Propose a multidimensional evaluation framework for policy prioritization and provide county-specific recommendations tailored to heterogeneous development levels.