Stress-Testing Slovenian SME Resilience: A Scenario Model Calibrated on South African Evidence

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a central role in employment and regional economic development, yet they are highly vulnerable to shocks such as pandemics, energy price spikes, and supply chain disruptions. Scenario modelling, stress testing, and digital twins are used to assess resilience, yet most applications focus on large firms in single-country settings. This article develops a model to stress test the resilience of Slovenian SMEs, calibrated with parameters and mechanisms derived from South African SME resilience studies. A system dynamics model with stocks for cash, inventory, and productive capacity is specified and subjected to demand, supply, financial, and compound shock scenarios, with and without resilience measures such as liquidity buffers, customer and supplier diversification, and basic digital planning capabilities. Results indicate non-linear tipping points where small reductions in liquidity sharply increase the likelihood of distress, and show that combinations of liquidity, diversification, and collaborative supply chain practices reduce the depth and duration of output losses. The study demonstrates how evidence from an African context can inform resilience strategies in a small European economy and provides a transparent, portable modelling architecture that can be adapted to other settings. Implications are discussed for SME managers and for policies supporting sustainable, resilient enterprise ecosystems.