Spatiotemporal Correlation Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Dissolved Oxygen Prediction in Water

Surface water is essential for sustaining ecosystems and supporting human socio-economic development, yet pollution from urbanization increasingly threatens its ecological sustainability. The accurate prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO), as an important indicator of water quality, is crucial for water resource protection. To address the methodological gaps in current research, we propose a hybrid deep learning model (GCG) that integrates spatiotemporal correlations to enhance DO prediction accuracy through the systematic exploitation of latent data dependencies. This study proposes a three-stage modeling framework: (1) A novel adjacency matrix construction methodology based on Pearson correlation coefficients is developed to quantify spatial correlations between monitoring stations, enabling spatial feature aggregation via graph convolutional networks (GCNs); (2) the spatially enhanced features are subsequently processed through 1D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to capture temporal local patterns; (3) model performance is comprehensively evaluated using four metrics: R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. The proposed model was implemented for DO prediction in Lake Taihu, China. Experimental results demonstrate that compared to conventional adjacency matrix construction methods, the Pearson correlation-based adjacency matrix confers advantages, achieving at least a 5% reduction in RMSE and over 10% improvement in MAE and MAPE. Furthermore, the GCG model outperformed the comparison model, with an R2 enhancement of 8%, while reducing RMSE and MAE by over 70% and 60%, respectively. These results validate the model’s effectiveness in mining spatiotemporal correlations for regional water quality forecasting, offering a reliable tool toward sustainable water monitoring and ecosystem-based management.