An LMDI-Based Analysis of Carbon Emission Changes in China’s Fishery and Aquatic Processing Sector: Implications for Sustainable Risk Assessment and Hazard Mitigation

To align with disaster monitoring and sustainable risk assessment, the low-carbon transition of fisheries necessitates comprehensive carbon emission management throughout the supply chain. As China advances supply-side structural reform, transitioning from traditional to low-carbon fisheries is vital for the green development of the industry and its associated sectors. This study employs input–output models and LMDI decomposition to examine the trends and drivers of embodied carbon emissions within China’s fishery production system from 2010 to 2019. By constructing a cross-sectoral full-emission accounting system, the research calculates total direct and indirect emissions, exploring how accounting scopes influence regional responsibility and reduction strategies. Empirical results indicate that while China’s aquatic trade and processing have steadily developed, the sector remains dominated by low-value-added primary products. This structure highlights vast potential for deep processing development amidst shifting global dietary habits. Factor decomposition reveals that economic and technological development are the primary drivers of carbon emissions. Notably, technological progress within fisheries emerges as the most significant factor, playing a pivotal role in both driving and potentially mitigating emissions. Consequently, to effectively lower carbon intensity, the study concludes that restructuring the fishery industry is crucial. Promoting low-carbon development and enhancing the R&D of green technologies are essential strategies to navigate the dual challenges of industrial upgrading and environmental protection.