Deliverable Phase 2 – Climate risk assessment Adapt on clime change in APV (CLIMACHANGE) Republic of Serbia / Autonomous Province of Vojvodina

This deliverable presents the results of Phase 2 – Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) conducted within the CLIMAAX framework for the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (RS12).The assessment was developed to provide a scientifically robust and policy-relevant foundation for regional adaptation planning and to identify key climate-related risks — with a focus on relative and agricultural droughts — that threaten socio-economic stability, food security, and environmental sustainability. The document responds to the need for evidence-based decision-making in regional climate adaptation. It provides a comprehensive picture of historical and projected drought hazards, exposure patterns, and vulnerabilities, as well as their spatial and temporal evolution.Readers gain insight into how climate change will affect agricultural production, ecosystem resilience, and water resources under different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5). Main Actions and Findings Phase 2 applied a multi-layered analytical framework aligned with the CLIMAAX Handbook. It combined regional datasets (E-OBS, NASA POWER, CMIP6 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR) with locally available information from national and provincial institutions (RHMZ, SORS, CORINE 2018). This approach enabled the fine-tuning of global risk workflows to the specific agro-climatic conditions of Vojvodina. Key actions included: Computation of drought indicators (SPI, SPEI, P–ET₀, CDD) for the baseline period 1981–2015, establishing reference conditions for hazard analysis; Spatial modelling of relative and agricultural droughts at NUTS3 resolution, validated through stakeholder consultations; Integration of future climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, 2021–2050; SSP5–8.5, 2071–2100), providing projections of drought severity and frequency; Development of vulnerability and exposure indices reflecting socio-economic, environmental, and infrastructural dimensions; Calculation of the Drought Risk Index (DRI) and Risk Priority Index (RPI) to rank districts by overall drought risk. Findings demonstrate that northeastern districts (Severnobanatski, Srednjobanatski) face the highest hazard and vulnerability, with increasing frequency of agricultural droughts projected under both emission scenarios. Under SSP5–8.5, the regional water balance shows mean deficits exceeding 100 mm during the growing season, highlighting the need for urgent adaptation measures.Conversely, western districts (Sremski, Južnobački) display higher resilience due to diversified land use, better irrigation systems, and stronger institutional capacity. The stakeholder validation process, including in-person and online meetings, confirmed the relevance of CRA results for local policy integration. The Key Risk Assessment Dashboard facilitated structured evaluation of severity, urgency, and resilience capacity, leading to prioritization of high-risk areas and enabling alignment with regional climate adaptation strategies. Conclusions: The Climate Risk Assessment for Vojvodina provides: A data-driven understanding of regional drought dynamics and vulnerability patterns; A quantitative foundation for prioritizing adaptation measures; A validated participatory model linking scientific assessment with governance structures. Remaining challenges—such as limited resolution of soil and hydrological data, and the absence of real-time drought monitoring—were acknowledged and will be addressed through targeted actions in the next project phase. Plans for the Final Phase: Phase 3 will focus on translation of risk assessment results into adaptation planning, including: Initialization of integration of CRA outputs into provincial and municipal adaptation strategies; Development of a Best Practice Guide on drought resilience; Implementation of capacity-building seminars and stakeholder co-design sessions; Strengthening of monitoring and communication mechanisms for climate risk management. By combining analytical precision with policy orientation, this deliverable positions Vojvodina as a regional model for evidence-based climate adaptation under the CLIMAAX framework.