Water resources and sustainable management in Tajikistan under global change

As a major source of freshwater in Central Asia, Tajikistan is endowed with abundant glaciers and water resources. However, the country faces multiple challenges, including accelerated glacier retreat, complex inter-government water resource management, and inefficient water use. Existing research has predominantly focused on individual hydrological processes, such as glacier retreat, snow cover change, or transboundary water issues, but it has yet to fully capture the overall complexity of water system. Tajikistan’s water system functions as an integrated whole from mountain runoff to downstream supply, but a comprehensive study of its water resource has yet to be conducted. To address this research gap, this study systematically examined the status, challenges, and sustainable management strategies of Tajikistan’s water resources based on a literature review, remote sensing data analysis, and case studies. Despite Tajikistan’s relative abundance of water resources, global warming is accelerating glacier melting and altering the hydrological cycles, which have resulted in unstable runoff patterns and heightened risks of extreme events. In Tajikistan, outdated infrastructure and poor management are primary causes of low water-use efficiency in the agricultural sector, which accounts for 85.00% of the total water withdrawals. At the governance level, Tajikistan faces challenges in balancing the water-energy-food nexus and transboundary water resource issues. To address these issues, this study proposes core paths for Tajikistan to achieve sustainable water resource management, such as accelerating technological innovation, promoting water-saving agricultural technologies, improving water resource utilization efficiency, and establishing a community participation-based comprehensive management framework. Additionally, strengthening cross-border cooperation and improving real-time monitoring systems have been identified as critical steps to advance sustainable water resource utilization and evidence-based decision-making in Tajikistan and across Central Asia.