Analysis of Annual Water Level Variability in the Mead and Powell Reservoirs of the Colorado River

This analysis examines long-term changes in water levels of the Mead and Glen Canyon reservoirs on the Colorado River. Both reservoirs display clear declining trends in water levels, particularly after 2003. The causes include a combination of climate change, megadrought, increased water consumption, and alterations in the hydrological regime. Lake Mead exhibits a stronger and more concerning decline than Lake Powell, including extreme drought conditions over the past three years. The Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums (RAPS) analysis identifies three statistically distinct subperiods, with an unambiguous decline in the most recent period. The day-to-day (DTD) method indicates reduced day-to-day water level variability in Lake Mead following the commissioning of the Powell reservoir, confirming its regulating influence. The Standardized Hydrological Index (SHI) indicates an accelerating intensification of drought conditions over the past 20 years. Regression analysis confirms a strong relationship between the water levels of the two reservoirs, along with significantly increased water losses in the more recent period. The literature suggests that climate projections are highly unfavorable, with further reductions in Colorado River discharge expected. The study underscores the urgent need to adapt water-management policies and align consumption with the new hydrological realities.