Applying the Ensemble and Metaheuristic Algorithm to Predict the Flexural Characteristics of Ice

The stability of ice structures in cold regions and polar environments has been increasingly challenged by global warming and climate change, making the accurate estimation of ice flexural properties essential. However, the flexural failure process of ice is highly complex, and the calculated flexural properties are influenced by multiple factors. Hence, several data-driven artificial intelligence models were developed to predict flexural strength, using classification and regression tree (CART), AdaBoost, and Random Forest methods, while the Elitist Ant System (EAS) was applied to optimize model parameters. The EAS procedure converged rapidly within ten iterations and effectively enhanced overall model performance. Compared with the single CART model, ensemble approaches exhibited higher prediction accuracy and better generalization, with AdaBoost achieving the best performance (R² = 0.736). Feature-importance analysis indicated that the testing method and specimen geometry had the greatest influence on the results, highlighting the importance of careful control of experimental conditions. The proposed ensemble-metaheuristic framework provides an efficient tool for predicting the mechanical behavior of ice and offers useful support for stability assessments of ice structures under changing climatic conditions.