Predicting Phenological Stages for Cherry and Apple Orchards: A Comparative Study with Meteorological and Satellite Data

Fruit growing is a traditional component of Bulgarian agricultural production. According to the latest statistical data, the share of areas planted with cherries is 10.5% of the total orchard area, and with apples, 7.2%, totaling 67,800 ha. This article presents the results of ground and remote (satellite) measurements and observations of cherry and apple orchards, along with the methods for their processing and interpretation, to define the current state and forecast their expected development. This research aims to combine the capabilities of the two approaches by improving and expanding observation and forecasting activities. Ground-based measurements and observations consider the dates of a permanent transition in air temperature above 5 °C and several cardinal phenological stages, based on the idea that a certain temperature sum (CU, GDH, GDD) must accumulate to move from one phenological stage to another. The obtained data were statistically analyzed, and by means of classification with the Random Forest algorithm, the dates for the occurrence of the stages of bud break, flowering, and fruit ripening in the development of cherry and apple orchards were predicted with an accuracy of −6 to +2 days. Satellite studies include creating a database of Sentinel-2 digital images across different spectral bands for the studied orchards, investigating various post-processing approaches, and deriving indicators of developmental phenostages. Ground data from the 2021–2023 experiment in Kyustendil and Plovdiv were used to determine the phases of fruit bursting, flowering, and ripening through satellite images. An assessment of the two approaches to predicting the development of the accuracy of the models was carried out by comparing their predictions for bud swelling and bursting (BBCH 57), flowering (BBCH 65), and fruit ripening (BBCH 87/89) of the observed phenological events in the two selected orchard types, representatives of stone and pome fruit species.