A Framework for Sustainable Safety Culture Development Driven by Accident Causation Models: Evidence from the 24Model

A strong safety culture is essential for managing human factors in complex systems and constitutes a strategic resource for supporting the sustainable operation of organizations. However, conventional approaches remain limited by unclear conceptual boundaries and a lack of mechanisms linking safety culture with other organizational safety elements. To address these gaps, this study develops a sustainable safety culture construction method grounded in accident causation theory. Using the 24Model, we establish a concise “culture–system–ability–acts” framework that operationalizes the pathways through which safety culture shapes organizational safety performance. The method integrates four components: conceptual clarification of safety culture, quantitative assessment, factor identification based on the 24Model, and Bayesian network analysis to quantify interdependencies among culture, systems, ability, and acts. Empirical evidence from coal mining enterprises shows that safety culture influences safety performance indirectly by shaping system implementation quality, workers’ safety ability, and safety-related actions. Enhancing “demand of safety training” substantially mitigated system deficiencies related to ineffective implementation of procedures, failure in enforcing procedures, lack of qualifications, and insufficient supervision. Improved training also strengthened workers’ knowledge of accident cases, consequences of violations, and technical standards, thereby reducing competence-related gaps and promoting more consistent safety supervision behaviors. Sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of reinforcing “safety responsibilities of line departments” and improving the dissemination of safety knowledge, particularly accident case knowledge. Overall, the findings empirically validate the dynamic “culture–system–ability–acts” transmission mechanism of the 24Model and provide a structured, quantitative pathway for advancing sustainable safety culture development.