Climate change-driven dispersal of pathogenic bacteria in large-scale lakes and reservoirs

Understanding the large-scale distribution mechanisms of bacterial pathogens is critical for predicting their ecology and associated human health risks under climate change. Here, we investigate the biogeographical patterns and community assembly of bacterial pathogens across 59 lakes and reservoirs in eastern China. We identify the low-latitude region as a significant bacterial pathogen hotspot, primarily dominated by the genus Acinetobacter. The assembly of pathogen communities is co-driven by spatial, environmental, and climatic factors, with spatial processes exerting the strongest effects. Importantly, we reveal precipitation as a key climatic factor that simultaneously enhances pathogen diversity and promotes potential dispersal. Genera such as Acinetobacter, Sphingomonas, and Stenotrophomonas are identified as highly dispersal-prone. Generally, under future precipitation scenarios, our models project that increased precipitation will significantly enhance both the abundance and richness of pathogens. This expansion is predicted to further intensify pathogen hotspots in low-latitude regions and accelerate the spread of potential health risks. These results establish a critical link between hydrological cycles and pathogen biogeography, mediated through dispersal. Our study provides new insights for developing integrated surveillance frameworks that combine hydrological monitoring with a 'One Health' approach to address the escalating ecological and public health threats from climate-driven pathogen reshaping.