Predicting the spatio-temporal risk of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Europe by combining hazard and exposure drivers
With ongoing climate and land use changes, the number of human TBE cases is likely to increase and spread into new areas. This highlights the importance of predictive models that can identify potential risk areas to support disease prevention and control efforts by public health authorities. The approach adopted, by fitting a One Health framework and leveraging lagged covaries, enables timely one-year-ahead predictions and enhances our current understanding of TBE risk under a global change scenario.
Authors
- Francesca Dagostin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2082-0415)
- Céline M Gossner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9345-5511)
- Henna Mäkelä (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1784-8190)
- Milda Žygutienė
- Mateusz Markowicz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9127-620X)
- Knap Nataša
- Maria Grazia Zuccali
- Nahuel Fiorito
- Roya Olyazadeh
- Lukas Richter
- Valentina Tagliapietra
- Giovanni Marini
- Daniele Da Re
- Maria Avdicova
- Simon Dellicour
- Diana Erazo
- Jana Kerlik
- William Wint
- Tatjana Avšič-Županc
- Annapaola Rizzoli
- Timothée Dub
Institutions
- Fondazione Edmund Mach (IT)
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE)
- University of Ljubljana (SI)
- University of Trento (IT)
- Oxford Research Group (GB)
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (FI)
- Public Health Authority of the Slovak Republic (SK)
- Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AT)
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (SE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- One Health
- Published
- 2026-01-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101331
- Primary Topic
- Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00