From Deformation Monitoring to Mechanism Insight: Assessing Sudden Subsidence Risk via an Improved 2D SBAS-InSAR and Physical Modeling Approach

Safe and efficient coal mining faces a global challenge in predicting sudden surface subsidence whose mechanisms remain unclear. This study, centered on deep coal seams in China's Ordos Basin, examines the risk of abrupt subsidence controlled by high-positioned, ultra-thick, and weakly cemented key strata. We adopt an integrated "observation-experiment-model" paradigm. First, we construct a spatial decoupling model to analyze errors in 1D SBAS-InSAR monitoring, leading to a refined 2D method that reduces the three-dimensional monitoring error from 50 mm to under 20 mm. Based on this, the subsidence basin's boundary angles are accurately determined as 52.3°-58.6° (strike) and 44.3°-48.2° (dip). Second, a large-scale physical simulation experiment visualizes the complete process of overburden failure up to the breaking of high-level key strata. Finally, by coupling remote sensing observations with experimental phenomena, a theoretical model is built to quantify the mechanical behavior of key strata, revealing the critical width-to-depth ratios for the rupture of the Yan'an Formation (0.21-0.27), Zhiluo Formation (0.53-0.82), and Zhidan Group (1.22-1.34). The research not only delineates surface subsidence morphology under special geological conditions but also answers the core questions of why subsidence occurs and when mutation may happen, thereby laying a theoretical foundation for a comprehensive early-warning model for mining areas worldwide.