Does ESG Rating Divergence Undermine the Insurance-like Effect of ESG? Evidence from Financial Restatements in China

This study investigates the “insurance-like effect” of corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance amid financial restatement events among Chinese listed firms and examines the moderating role of ESG rating divergence. Employing an event study methodology on a sample of 1552 financial restatement events in China’s A-share market from 2013 to 2023, we measure market reactions using the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) over a [−1, +1] day window. Our findings reveal that strong ESG performance significantly mitigates the negative market reactions triggered by financial restatements. However, this protective effect of ESG is significantly weakened by the inconsistency in ESG assessments among rating agencies, known as ESG rating divergence, particularly when such divergence is persistent. We argue that the underlying mechanism is that rating divergence creates signal conflicts, exacerbates information asymmetry, and erodes the credibility of ESG signals. This, in turn, undermines the stakeholder trust and moral capital that underpin the insurance-like effect. This research sheds light on the complex impact of ESG rating divergence on the value-protective mechanism of ESG and contributes new empirical evidence to the literature on ESG and its insurance-like effect, especially within the context of an emerging market.