Using Theory of Change (ToC) to identify key risks to the effectiveness of shared river basin agreements: a case of the Orange-Senqu River Commission

Shared river basins support socio-economic development for almost half the world’s population. Although the mutual reliance on a shared finite resource introduces high levels of complexity into its management. Shared river basin agreements are often used as specific international policy instruments towards effective water resource management. However, the effectiveness of these agreements in achieving their objectives is increasingly being questioned. In an effort to improve our understanding of water management within shared river basins, the paper aims to identify key risks to the effectiveness of shared river basin agreements. This is achieved by applying a Theory of Change (ToC) methodology to the Orange-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM) Agreement, promoting cooperative management within the Orange-Senqu River basin in Southern Africa. The ToC produces a causal narrative and highlights key assumptions and risks for implementation. The results reveal 18 key risks underpinning the agreement, of which nine are associated with the input component – what we need to implement the agreement. Considering the existing literature and the current water governance landscape of the region, the main risks to the effectiveness of the ORASECOM Agreement include the lack of enforcement and implementation of national legislation, as well as inadequate provision of resources necessary for effective implementation. • The paper aims to identify the key risks to the effectiveness of shared river basin agreements with the purpose of contributing to our understanding of the cooperative arrangements amongst member states and opportunities to enhance and strengthen future cooperation. • The paper achieves this by implementing a Theory of Change (ToC) methodology to identifying key risks to the effectiveness of shared river basin agreements with the specific focus on the Orange-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM) Agreement. • This methodology produces a ToC map and causal narrative explaining the key underlying assumptions associated with the ORASECOM Agreement. • We conclude that 18 key risks underpin the agreement with most of the risks associated with the input component – what we need to implement the agreement. • This essentially means that the agreement is currently relying on flawed assumptions and not working as intended.