A generalized SEIRW-VN framework for modeling infectious disease dynamics

Understanding how infectious diseases spread requires models that integrate both human contact structure and environmental factors. We propose SEIRW-VN, a generalized epidemic framework that combines network heterogeneity, indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs, and vaccination. Using COVID-19 data from several European countries, the model outperforms classical homogeneous approaches, capturing more realistic epidemic peaks and timing. Our simulations reveal that highly connected individuals disproportionately sustain outbreaks, while environmental transmission can account for up to one quarter of infections, prolonging epidemic duration. Intervention analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical measures delay peaks and vaccination reduces long-term incidence, but only their combination yields strong synergistic effects, lowering both peak size and overall burden. These findings highlight the importance of integrating contact structure, environmental persistence, and vaccination into epidemic models to design robust and effective public health strategies.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2026-01-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34872-w
Primary Topic
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

A generalized SEIRW-VN framework for modeling infectious disease dynamics

Hocine Cherifi, Chérif Diallo, Abdoulaye Sow
Scientific Reports
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
article

A generalized SEIRW-VN framework for modeling infectious disease dynamics

Hocine Cherifi, Chérif Diallo, Abdoulaye Sow
article en

Abstract

Understanding how infectious diseases spread requires models that integrate both human contact structure and environmental factors. We propose SEIRW-VN, a generalized epidemic framework that combines network heterogeneity, indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs, and vaccination. Using COVID-19 data from several European countries, the model outperforms classical homogeneous approaches, capturing more realistic epidemic peaks and timing. Our simulations reveal that highly connected individuals disproportionately sustain outbreaks, while environmental transmission can account for up to one quarter of infections, prolonging epidemic duration. Intervention analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical measures delay peaks and vaccination reduces long-term incidence, but only their combination yields strong synergistic effects, lowering both peak size and overall burden. These findings highlight the importance of integrating contact structure, environmental persistence, and vaccination into epidemic models to design robust and effective public health strategies.

Scientific ReportsVol. 16(1)
Université Gaston Berger (SN), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Université de Bourgogne (FR)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 88%
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
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