Predicting job creation likelihood among corps members in Nigeria using linear and machine learning models

Youth unemployment continues to pose a major challenge in Nigeria despite sustained government initiatives promoting entrepreneurship and empowerment. The National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) established the Skill Acquisition and Entrepreneurship Development (SAED) programme to provide graduates with practical skills that can stimulate job creation. Earlier studies have often examined entrepreneurial intentions rather than actual job creation after participation in SAED or the joint influence of demographic attributes and graduate attitudes on such outcomes. This study examined how age, gender, marital status, educational qualification, and graduate attitude relate to job creation among Nigerian corps members. A survey research design was used to gather data from more than nineteen thousand NYSC members who served between 2012 and 2021. Data were obtained electronically through social media platforms and analysed with descriptive statistics and logistic regression, while a machine learning model was used to assess the strength of predictive accuracy. The results showed that graduate attitude, educational qualification, and marital status were significant predictors of job creation, whereas age and gender were not. The model performed effectively, confirming the reliability of the findings. This study contributes to current understanding of graduate employment outcomes in Nigeria and provides useful evidence for improving entrepreneurship education and policy measures aimed at addressing youth unemployment.