Temporal patterns of wildfire occurrence in forests disturbed by pests in the subtaiga zone of Central Siberia

Ensuring the preservation and sustainable functioning of forest stands is of key importance in countering the worsening climate change. By maintaining ecological balance, forest ecosystems ensure the stability of natural processes. In addition to industrial exploitation of forests, forest fires, massive outbreaks of insects, and the spread of diseases are the main factors in reducing forested areas. The Siberian silkworm (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) and the Ussuri polygraph (Polygraphus proximus Blandford). An urgent area is the search for correlations between damage caused by entomological pests and the burning of forests, which will improve the prediction of fire danger in forest plantations and in the formation of sound fire protection measures. The study used data on forest fires for 2000-2023 using a well-known method for calculating the burn rate, as well as weather information (according to correlation analysis, a weak relationship was revealed – the coefficient is 0.23). The analysis of damage to forest stands was carried out according to the data of the Federal Forestry Agency of Russia "Rosleskhoz". Based on the analysis of quantitative indicators, it was revealed that in plantations affected by the Siberian silkworm (D. sibiricus T.), the probability of fires increases significantly 2 years after damage, and in fir plantations affected by the polygraph of the Ussuriysky (P. proximus B.), mainly in the 8th year. It is assumed that there is a tendency to increase the frequency and burning in damaged plantations at the current level of forest protection. To reduce the negative consequences, a set of preventive and economic measures developed by the forestry sector is necessary. The results obtained contribute to an improved understanding of the impact of entomological pests on forest fire risk and can be applied in the management of forest resources in the subtaiga zone of Central Siberia.