Uranium at the nexus of energy security and sustainable development in a renuclearised world: demand trajectories and technological pathways

Global decarbonisation and energy-security imperatives have revived interest in nuclear power, prompting a nuclear renaissance. This resurgence is projected to drive sustained growth in uranium demand through mid-century. Yet, despite large recoverable resources, converting uranium endowment into a secure and environmentally responsible supply remains technically and institutionally constrained. This study aims to quantify near- to mid-term reactor-related uranium demand trajectories and to assess front-end fuel-cycle readiness, with particular attention to advanced fuel requirements and supply-chain bottlenecks. Understanding both demand trajectories and production technologies is essential for assessing the sustainability of this renuclearised landscape. We provide an integrated assessment of uranium demand and technologies driving exploration, production, and fuel-cycle advancement. Projections indicate that annual reactor-related uranium requirements of ~ 70 × 103 tU (7 × 107 kg U) could rise to 130–150 × 103 tU (≈ 1.3–1.5 × 108 kg U) by 2040, driven by new large-scale reactors, life extensions, and small modular reactors. The analysis outlines the geological heterogeneity of uranium deposits and evaluates conventional mining and in-situ recovery methods in terms of efficiency, environmental footprint, and scalability. Advancements in enrichment and high-assay low-enriched uranium production have been recognised as pivotal for next-generation reactor deployment, emphasising technologies’ readiness to meet future supply while minimising ecological impacts and waste. Our analysis shows that the nuclear resurgence is fundamentally underpinned by a uranium renaissance, driven by innovation in extraction, fuel-cycle engineering, and resource management. Securing this growth sustainably will require not just resource sufficiency but timely investment, technological innovation, and environmentally responsible mining practices.