Urban growth and diachronic analysis of shoreline change – Bagnara Calabra and Favazzina case study (southern Italy)

Abstract Historically, human populations have mainly settled along the coast. In Europe, around 200 million people, almost a third of the total population, live within 50 km of the sea. This high population density, coupled with intense human activity, has played a key role in the degradation of the natural coastal environment. In these vulnerable areas, a serious issue is coastal erosion, driven by natural forces and human actions. Considering these dynamics, proper coastal management requires identifying the adverse factors that could compromise the use of coastal resources for future generations. In this context, the beach's evolution and the potential impact of urban expansion over the last century were examined through a diachronic analysis. To this end, a semi-quantitative approach integrating the Digital Shoreline Analysis System and GIS-based spatial analysis algorithms was implemented. The study focused on the territories of Bagnara Calabra and Favazzina sites in the Calabria Region (southern Italy), which are characterized by long-term urbanisation and ongoing coastal erosion. The study also classified shoreline sectors according to their physical vulnerability, combining indicators of beach width and rate of shoreline change to highlight the most susceptible areas. These results shed light on the interactions between natural processes and human activities that affect the coastline evolution. They provide decision-makers with a valuable tool for implementing sustainable coastal protection and management strategies.