System Dynamics in Energy Transitions: Understanding Complexity and Driving Engagement

Energy transitions take place within deeply interconnected systems. System Dynamics (SD) is a modelling approach grounded in systems thinking principles that account for complexity and stakeholder diversity. It offers several opportunities that are particularly relevant in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Key advantages: i) Unconstrained thinking: SD encourages decision-making to go beyond what is easily measurable. Relying only on data that are readily available and easily quantifiable risks overlooking other essential influences on policy design and its outcomes. ii) Nuanced understanding: The approach offers a fuller picture of complex problems by integrating both qualitative and quantitative tools. iii) Dynamic perspective: By moving beyond static assumptions, SD can explore how changes in systems evolve over time. iv) Growing interest and proven relevance: The use of SD has shown promising results in LMICs, being applied to the energy– water–food nexus and increasingly to critical minerals use. More studies are needed to integrate Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI) considerations. v) Systems mindset: SD helps with the recognition of patterns, feedback loops, and interdependencies. This approach can foster a wider systems-oriented perspective.Systems approaches can complement traditional modelling and enrich understanding across sectors and disciplines, notably between industry, academia, and policy. Hybrid studies combining SD with conventional methods are likely to influence future modelling practices and contribute to the strategic integration of energy transitions, energy security, and sustainable development. This brief introduces the core concepts of SD as a tool for understanding complex systems.