EVOLVING TRADE LANDSCAPES: ANALYZING THE NETWORK DYNAMICS OF PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS (1948–2023)

Our study provides a detailed examination of the network dynamics of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) from 1948 to 2023, leveraging Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) and advanced community detection algorithms. Our research uncovers significant structural shifts and evolving centrality of key countries within the PTA network, influenced by major geopolitical and economic events over the decades. We identify political alignment, economic compatibility and geographic proximity as critical factors in the formation and evolution of PTAs. Our findings indicate that democratic countries with similar economic profiles and regional proximity are more likely to establish robust and sustainable trade agreements. These insights offer valuable implications for policymakers focused on enhancing regional integration and navigating the complexities of global trade. This study also paves the way for future research on the role of technological advancements and other international agreements in shaping the global economic landscape.