Urban-rural land demand trajectories of migrant workers across the life course

As urbanization advances in China, the dual household registration and land ownership systems create significant barriers to the permanent settlement of migrant workers, fostering a pattern of circular urban-rural migration. This study integrates life course theory with a resource endowment framework to analyze the dynamic land demand trajectories of migrant workers in Beijing. Using survey data and an instrumental variables (IV) approach, we find that migrants exhibit a distinct “pendulum-style” mobility, with their spatial focus shifting from urban to rural areas across the life course. The drivers of land demand are asymmetric: individual resources primarily determine urban housing demand, while household resources, particularly the homestead, anchor rural demand, functioning as a dynamic asset rather than a passive safety net. The influence of social resources is limited by institutional barriers. These findings reveal that migrants’ dual land demand is a rational adaptation to structural constraints. We conclude by recommending a dynamic, stage-specific land allocation mechanism to enhance land-use efficiency and support both sustainable urbanization and rural revitalization.