United States and European Union aid cuts risk exacerbating links between aid, trade, and human and environmental crises

Both the United States and European Union have been considerable providers of official development aid, but political pressure is mounting to reduce future disbursements. Here, we conduct a system-wide association study linking detailed trade flows with various aid purposes—including untied, humanitarian, and typically non-trade-related aid—to explore how aid and trade may interact in indirect or unintended ways. Using OECD aid data and global trade statistics, we find strong and persistent correlations between specific imported goods and aid purposes. These links reflect trade-offs among the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and suggest that a major reduction in U.S. aid could disrupt efforts to mitigate the impacts of its food and precious metal imports. The findings also highlight the fragile relationship between aid, minerals, and conflict. This shift may offer a strategic opportunity to nations to reduce their supply chain vulnerabilities and rethink the broader relationship between aid, trade, and human and environmental crises. Persistent correlations between traded goods and foreign aid purposes reveal connections to human and environmental crises that could be exacerbated by aid cuts, according to a global study using OECD aid data and trade flows to map obscure or unintended interactions between aid and trade.