Digital–Intelligent Transformation and Urban Carbon Efficiency in the Yellow River Basin: A Hybrid Super-Efficiency DEA and Interpretable Machine-Learning Framework

The goal of this scientific study is to clarify whether and how digital–intelligent integration contributes to urban carbon efficiency and to identify the conditions under which this contribution becomes nonlinear and policy-relevant. Focusing on 39 prefecture-level cities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin during 2011–2022, we adopt an integrated measurement–modelling approach that combines efficiency evaluation, machine-learning interpretation, and dynamic–spatial validation. Specifically, we construct two super-efficiency DEA indicators: an undesirable-output SBM incorporating CO2 emissions and a conventional super-efficiency CCR index. We then estimate nonlinear city-level relationships using XGBoost and interpret the marginal effects with SHAP, while panel vector autoregression (PVAR) and spatial diagnostics are employed to validate the dynamic responses and spatial dependence. The results show that digital–intelligent integration is positively associated with both carbon-related and conventional efficiency, but its marginal contribution is strongly conditioned by human capital, urbanisation, and environmental regulation, exhibiting threshold-type behaviour and diminishing returns at higher digitalisation levels. Green efficiency reacts more strongly to short-run shocks, whereas conventional efficiency follows a steadier improvement trajectory. Heterogeneity across urban agglomerations and evidence of spatial clustering further suggest that uniform policy packages are unlikely to perform well. These findings highlight the importance of sequencing and policy complementarity: investments in digital infrastructure should be coordinated with institutional and structural measures such as green finance, environmental standards, and industrial upgrading and place-based pilots can help scale effective digital applications toward China’s dual-carbon objectives. The proposed framework is transferable to other regions where the digital–climate nexus is central to smart and sustainable urban development.