Energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind mitigates trade-offs between energy water use and irrigation in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract Reconciling societal water needs and ecosystem services is integral to sustainable development in big river basins. Renewable energy such as photovoltaic (PV) and wind power provides opportunities to mitigate sectoral water use, but quantifying their effects on the water-energy-land nexus remains challenging. Using an engineering-economic optimization model, this study quantifies how, and to what extent, energy transition towards PV and wind mitigates water competition between the energy and land sectors in the Yellow River Basin from 2020 to 2050. Results show that under current conditions, energy water use increases by 32.9 × 10 8 m 3 yr −1 (+34.2%) while irrigation water decreases by 23.3 × 10 8 m 3 yr −1 (−12.7%) compared to the baseline. Transitioning to PV and wind energy, alongside electricity transmission, substantially alleviates the competition. Energy water use decreases by 82.1 × 10 ⁸ m 3 yr −1 (−63.7%) across the basin, and irrigation water is replenished by 21.9 × 10 8 m 3 yr −1 (+54.7%) in Inner Mongolia and 1.6 × 10 8 m 3 yr −1 (+35.9%) in Shandong. Though costly, the transmission line from Inner Mongolia and Shandong is prioritized for reducing the local consumption of renewable energy, ensuring downstream energy supply and restoring irrigation water availability. These findings underscore the critical role of transitioning to renewable energy in resolving sectoral water conflicts, and highlight the importance of electricity transmission in balancing spatial disparities in energy and irrigation demands across the basin.