Global Shifts in Fire Regimes Under Climate Change: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Implications Across Biomes

Wildfire regimes are undergoing rapid transformation under anthropogenic climate change, with major implications for biodiversity, carbon cycling, and ecosystem resilience. This systematic review synthesizes findings from 42 studies across global, continental, and regional scales to assess emerging patterns in fire frequency, intensity, and seasonality, and to identify climatic, ecological, and anthropogenic drivers shaping these changes. Across biomes, evidence shows increasingly fire-conducive conditions driven by rising temperatures, vapor-pressure deficit, and intensifying drought, with climate model projections indicating amplification of extreme fire weather this century. Boreal ecosystems show heightened fire danger and carbon-cycle vulnerability; Mediterranean and Iberian regions face extended fire seasons and faster spread rates; tropical forests, particularly the Amazon, are shifting toward more flammable states due to drought–fragmentation interactions; and savannas display divergent moisture- and fuel-limited dynamics influenced by climate and land use. These results highlight the emergence of biome-specific fire–climate–fuel feedback that may push certain ecosystems toward alternative stable states. The review underscores the need for improved attribution frameworks, integration of fire–vegetation–carbon feedback into Earth system models, and development of adaptive, regionally tailored fire-management strategies.