Agricultural New Productive Forces Driving Sustainable Agricultural Development: Evidence from Anhui Province, China

The development of agricultural new productive forces (ANPFs) represents a vital pathway to overcoming the bottlenecks of agricultural modernization and reshaping agricultural competitiveness. As sustainable development and green transformation have become global priorities, the formation of ANPFs is increasingly viewed as a key engine for promoting resource-efficient agriculture, low-carbon production, ecological protection, and resilient food systems. Using panel data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, China, spanning the period 2010–2023, this study employs the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to measure the levels of ANPFs and sustainable agricultural development (SAD). A panel data model is then applied to examine the impact of ANPFs on SAD, while a mediation-effect model is used to test the underlying transmission mechanisms. Finally, a spatial econometric model is employed to assess the spatial spillover effects between ANPFs and SAD. The results reveal that ANPFs exert a significant and robust positive impact on Anhui’s SAD, with the strength of this effect decreasing gradually from central to southern and northern regions. Further analysis indicates that the driving influence of ANPFs operates through three key mediating pathways: the improvement of new-type infrastructure, the enhancement of agricultural scientific and technological innovation, and the advancement of agricultural digital transformation. Moreover, ANPFs demonstrate a positive spatial spillover effect, suggesting that the development of new productive forces in one region promotes agricultural modernization in neighboring areas. These findings demonstrate that ANPFs not only enhance productivity but also contribute to sustainable agricultural development. Accordingly, strengthening ANPFs development can serve as an effective strategy for promoting long-term agricultural sustainability, indicating that central Anhui should be prioritized as a core hub for fostering ANPFs, enabling the gradient diffusion of infrastructure, innovation capacity, and digital services toward southern and northern Anhui. Strengthening regional coordination mechanisms will further amplify the spatial spillover of ANPFs, thereby advancing high-quality agricultural development across the province. This study provides new evidence for how ANPFs can support sustainable agricultural transformation, offering policy insights for green growth, food security, and rural revitalization.