Values, rules, and knowledge: Understanding and enabling land use change decisions as adaptation to climate change

Changing productive land use can be a transformational adaptation strategy to reduce climate risk and enable new opportunities for farmers and growers. Such decisions, however, are complicated by uncertainty, long lead times, and substantial capital investment. These individual and collective choices are shaped by interactions between values, rules, and knowledge (VRK), which together define the decision-making contexts that enable or constrain land-use transformation. We apply the VRK framework in case studies of two agricultural regions in Aotearoa New Zealand using participatory workshops and systems-thinking tools, including timelines and causal loop diagramming. The analysis reveals that land-use decisions are strongly shaped by values (such as place attachment and occupational identity) and knowledge, which is often oriented toward optimising existing production systems rather than exploring alternatives. In contrast, governance and policy rules play a more indirect role, primarily by reinforcing or constraining experimentation. By making visible feedbacks, path dependencies, and leverage points within decision contexts, the study shows how systems approaches can support more effective alignment between regulatory settings, incentives, and farmers’ values and aspirations, thereby enabling climate-resilient land-use transitions. • Land use change decisions are shaped by interactions between values, rules, and knowledge (VRK). • Values and knowledge are the most influential in shaping farmers’ land use decisions. • Rules are often experienced as constraining change, though targeted incentives and research can enable experimentation. • Decision contexts are embedded in political economy, place, environment, and culture. • Systems modelling of VRK interactions reveals potential leverage points for accelerating adaptation.