Models and molecules reveal diverging biogeographical histories and future distribution trends in three Palaearctic forest butterflies

Abstract In this study, we calculated Species Distribution Models and analysed the molecular structure for three phylogenetically closely related forest butterflies belonging to the same genus, Limenitis populi, L. camilla, and L. reducta. Based on the results obtained we identify potential speciation centres, and past, current and future distributions. While the distribution of the species L. populi and L. camilla mainly depends on humidity, the distribution of the species L. reducta is strongly dependent on temperature. Our projections show that L. populi and L. camilla persisted mainly in Central Europe and L. reducta was widely spread in Southern Europe and Central Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results from Species Distribution Models become underpinned by molecular data. Data based on the CO1-gene indicate a center of speciation and subsequent expansion for L. populi and L. camilla in Central and Eastern Europe, and for L. reducta in southern Europe and the Middle East. The distribution scenarios for the future show different trends in line with the diverging biogeographical histories. While L. reducta will experience extinctions at its southern distribution margins, this species will expand towards Central and Eastern Europe. In contrast, L. populi and L. camilla are expected to shift its distribution range towards the North-East Palearctic and in Fennoscandian region. Our study shows that species react differently to recent climatic changes depending on their biogeographical history. The study demonstrates the great value of combining molecular genetic data with distribution models.