The Short-Tailed Golden Dog Fragmented Realm: α-Hull Unravels the Maned Wolf’s Hidden Population

Understanding the spatial structure of large mammals is critical for conservation planning, especially under increasing habitat fragmentation. This study applies an integrated spatial analysis combining the DBSCAN density-based clustering algorithm and the α-hull method to delineate non-convex geographic ranges of the maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) across South America. Using 454 occurrence records filtered for ecological reliability, we identified 11 geographically isolated α-populations distributed across five countries and multiple biomes, including the Cerrado, Chaco, and Atlantic Forest. The sensitivity analysis of the α parameter demonstrated that values below 2 failed to generate viable polygons, while α = 2 provided the best balance between geometric detail and ecological plausibility. Our results reveal a highly fragmented distribution, with α-populations varying in area from 43,077 km2 to 566,154.7 km2 and separated by distances up to 994.755 km. Smaller and peripheral α-populations are likely more vulnerable to stochastic processes, genetic drift, and inbreeding, while larger clusters remain functionally isolated due to anthropogenic barriers. We propose the concept of ‘α-population’ as an operational unit to describe geographically and functionally isolated groups identified through combined spatial clustering and non-convex hull analysis. This approach offers a reproducible and biologically meaningful framework for refining range estimates, identifying conservation units, and guiding targeted management actions. Overall, integrating α-hulls with density-based clustering improves our understanding of the species’ fragmented spatial structure and supports evidence-based conservation strategies aimed at maintaining habitat connectivity and long-term viability of C. brachyurus populations.