Loyal to What and Whom? Relational Loyalty and Migration Decision-Making in Hong Kong

What prompts citizens to stay or leave when political conditions deteriorate in their homeland? Traditional theories suggest that loyalty to one's homeland encourages individuals to stay rather than emigrate. Yet, there is limited empirical research examining how specific forms of loyalty influence emigration decision-making. This article analyzes loyalty through a relational lens, focusing on the ideological distance citizens perceive between themselves and others in their political community, rather than their degree of attachment to an identity or political entity. We use the concept of relational loyalty and argue that it plays a role in shaping citizens’ emigration decision-making. Drawing on a survey of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, we find that individuals who perceive themselves as more committed to liberal democratic values than the average citizen are more likely to have formulated concrete emigration plans. However, this perceived value disparity has limited predictive power in determining mere emigration intentions or actual emigration. These results demonstrate that while divergences in political values can influence politically-motivated emigration, their impact varies across different stages of the emigration decision-making process. Our study contributes to the widely used exit-voice framework and deepens our understanding of emigration dynamics among pro-democracy constituencies within authoritarian contexts.