Sustainable Development Pathways for Plain Cities from a Multi-Model Integration Perspective: A Case Study of Chengdu

Elucidating the trajectory of landscape ecological risk in Chengdu provides an empirical basis for ecological risk management within the city's jurisdiction, holding important practical value for promoting urban sustainable development. Through five periods of land use data covering the period of 2000-2020, this paper employs the landscape pattern index method to evaluate the landscape ecological risk index for the corresponding years in an effort to delineate the evolving patterns of the risk over time and space. To identify the clustered distribution of landscape ecological risk, we conducted a spatial autocorrelation analysis. Using the MOP-FLUS model, the geographical arrangement of landscape categories under four distinct 2035 scenarios is projected, enabling predictions of future landscape ecological risk trends. The findings reveal the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the overall landscape ecological risk in Chengdu showed a declining trend, and the risk level structure continued to optimize; (2) the landscape ecological risk index presented an overall pattern of &quotlower in the west and higher in the east,&quot with low-risk areas consistently clustered in the western ecological barrier and with high-risk areas persistently concentrated in the central plains; (3) multi-scenario simulations demonstrate that Ecological-Priority Development scenario can effectively control the expansion of high-risk areas, representing the optimal pathway for maintaining regional ecological sustainability.