INDIA'S GROWTH PERSPECTIVE- AN ACADEMIC BREAK ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT: By applying the formal applied Structural Break Methodologies, often we getabreak point or multiple break points without much economic significance. The break pointsoften are termed as outliers and wiping them out, we get the same trend as before in the trendtrajectory. Therefore, the following academic breaks are imposed by the author observing theeconomic significance. Although the breaks are based upon a postulate analysis, but the significance of them are undeniable. Level Effects (based on Postulate Analysis) on a Non-Stationary Time Series determines the Break Dates. The Postulate Analysis is based on ‘Dooming Insignificant Breaks’ and averaging the ‘pre-level effect’ growth rates prior to theLevel Effect Growth Date and averaging the ‘post-level effect’ growth rates after the LevelEffect Growth Date. No movement towards the ‘Stationarity’ of the time series is required.No requirement of Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test is required to determine the break dates.No requirement of ‘min RSS’ or ‘max F’ to determine the break dates. These are simply methods to determine the ‘Outlier’ dates and not the break dates in general. The Zivott-Andrews break, Amit Sen break and the Bai-Perron break, all these breaks determined only outliers. My break determination through the “Level Effects of the Trends” actuallydetermines the breaks.