The Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Cameroon Using Poisson Regression Model from 2011 – 2020: A Case Study of Bamenda-Douala Expressway

ABSTRACT: The roads in Cameroon have become grim islands as more and more accidents occur, leading to a constant stream of deaths and causing devastation in families Researchers have been modelling vehicular accidents with accident prevention models in various parts of the world. Considering that road traffic accident along Cameroonian roads is observed to be on the increase, especially in recent times, this study examines the relationship between death from road accidents and total cases of road accidents along the Bamenda-Douala expressway, and also to examine the trend of death from road accidents on the road using Poisson regression model. By using data obtained from Sector Command, of the Road Safety Corps, the Poisson regression model was fitted. It was found that If cases of Road Traffic Accident increase by 1 unit, it will lead to 0.8% increase in death resulting from Road Traffic Accidents. Furthermore, death resulting from Road Traffic Accidents decrease by 7.5% annually on Bamenda-Douala Road. The coefficients in the model (cases, time and constant) are significantly different form 0 with p < 0.05. The goodness of fit test for the Poisson regression model revealed that death from Road Traffic Accident on Bamenda-Douala Road follows the Poisson distribution with (p value > 0.05). The fitted model provides an effective way of predicting death arising from accidents along the road, hence useful for policy creation and planning.