Analyzing projections of cemetery land utilization: a case study of Perlis state

Cemetery land scarcity is becoming a notable urban planning challenge, particularly in land-constrained regions such as Perlis, Malaysia. In this state, local communities often wish to donate (waqf) their land for cemetery purposes. However, authorities tend to encourage these donations to be allocated for other uses, as they believe current cemetery capacity is sufficient. Without clear and transparent evidence to support this belief, differences in perception can arise between communities and authorities. Perlis Technical Report estimate sufficiency until 2035, but these are based on limited assumptions and methods, which may not capture the full range of possible scenarios. This study re-examines cemetery land longevity in Perlis using three projection models: (1) a constant average demand model based on annual cemetery land requirements from 2019–2023, (2) a demand estimation model derived from average population and mortality rates, and (3) a surplus estimation model projecting land sufficiency by balancing burial needs against existing capacity over a 30-year horizon. Projections were carried out both at the state level and for individual districts (Kangar, Arau, Kuala Perlis, and Padang Besar). The results consistently show that cemetery land sufficiency extends far beyond the 2035 estimate, with some districts such as Kangar, projected to sustain capacity up to 48 years beyond 2025. These findings demonstrate the importance of applying multiple methodological approaches to produce more reliable and adaptive cemetery land forecasts. Data-driven assessments not only provide stronger evidence for policymakers but also help reconcile differences in perception between authorities and communities, thereby preventing premature land acquisition and supporting more sustainable land management strategies.